There seems to be some consternation over how to handle the No. 2 overall pick in a draft assuming Christian McCaffrey goes first overall. CeeDee Lamb feels like the obvious choice, but what if his holdout extends past training camp and deep into the preseason? What if he opts to sit out to start the season? Would Tyreek Hill be a better choice? How about a running back?
These are legitimate questions that probably should be addressed sooner than later. So why not answer them right here, right now as we dive into my half-PPR team from the No. 2 draft slot?
Very rarely do players hold out into the regular season. Le'Veon Bell did it in 2018 when the Steelers franchise-tagged him and he opted to not play at all for a full season! The current CBA makes it difficult for a player under contract (like Lamb) to do such a thing because it keeps the player advancing a year toward free-agency eligibility. There is a minimum number of six games Lamb could come back and play for to earn status for free agency.
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There's a long history of players holding out from training camp, showing up the week before a game, and grossly underperforming. Josh Jacobs is a recent example from 2023. So even though Lamb knows the Cowboys offense, knows how Dak Prescott throws and is assumed to remain the catalyst of their offense, he's stills not likely to be in the best shape to go from his trainer's gym to the football field. Small injuries could linger, mental mistakes could happen, etc.
HOWEVER, that's if he misses at least the next three weeks. If Lamb reports by August 25, he'd have two weeks to put a rush order on getting ready for football. And when we did this mock draft, Lamb still had nearly three weeks to get back with his teammates.
So that's why I took Lamb at second overall. I drafted him under the premise that he'd be back with the Cowboys soon enough. I did not draft a handcuff like Brandin Cooks or Jalen Tolbert, nor did I over-prioritize the receiver position in case Lamb's holdout extends deep into August or September. It goes without saying I would do those things if I took Lamb several weeks from now, but I also wouldn't take him at No. 2 overall if he was still out of camp by August 25 (I would take Tyreek Hill in PPR; I am already taking Breece Hall over Lamb in non-PPR).
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Here's how the team came together from the No. 2 spot:
1.02 CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL
2.11 Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
3.02 Derrick Henry, RB, BAL
4.11 Trey McBride, TE, ARI
5.02 Stefon Diggs, WR, HOU
6.11 Jayden Reed, WR, GB
7.02 Anthony Richardson, QB, IND
8.11 Brian Robinson, RB, WAS
9.02 Jordan Addison, WR, MIN
10.11 JK Dobbins, RB, LAC
11.02 Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, NE
12.11 Dontayvion Wicks, WR, GB
13.02 Kirk Cousins, QB, ATL
14.11 Will Levis, QB, TEN
Figuring out what to do at No. 2 overall is pretty easy compared to what to do in Rounds 2 and 3.
According to our PPR ADP, receivers like Chris Olave, Drake London and Davante Adams will be available in late Round 2 and into early Round 3. But in our drafts those three tend to go sooner than 23rd overall and this half-PPR draft was no exception. Even Brandon Aiyuk went 22nd overall.
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I had to buckle up and plan on going RB-RB in Rounds 2 and 3, knowing full well that I would have a nice edge on those lineup spots but would be hurting at my No. 2 receiver. At least the format is half-PPR -- that took the sting out of it.
I took Pacheco in Round 2 and figured Henry would make it back to me in Round 3 (I know how the drafter at Pick No. 1 felt about Henry). He did. Easy pick. Plus I assumed I'd ignore running backs for several rounds knowing full well I'd never start anyone else over Pacheco and Henry.
Would I have done the same thing in full-PPR? Yeah, I probably would. Look, one of the worst things you could do is make an unforced error in your drafts. Why reach for Deebo Samuel (my highest-ranked WR at the time) or Mike Evans (the next receiver drafted) when you can land not one but two running backs who have the upside to out-produce them? And it wouldn't be like I would be dead at receiver, SOMEBODY would be there for me to take and feel decent about with my next pick, and the pick after.
Frankly, the decision would have been painful had I taken Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson at No. 2 instead of Lamb. I could NOT in good conscience start a draft with three running backs, especially in a league where catches could for something AND three wide receivers were required in lineups. In that instance I probably would have reached for Samuel and hated it.
As it turned out, the team is good enough at receiver, but not as strong as others in the league. But that's okay because very few teams have as good of a running back duo as I have, especially with a top tight end.
Speaking of that tight end ... when I was up in Round 4, Mark Andrews was my top-ranked tight end, but I already had Henry on my roster. Would I want to invest in two Ravens? In Andrews' 10 games last year, both he and a running back had 14-plus full-PPR points just three times. I imagine there will be a better ratio this year between Andrews and Henry, albeit at a lower number since we're talking half-PPR, but not as good of a ratio as I might get with Henry and a different tight end. I took Trey McBride over Andrews to avoid that stat crunch; Andrews went with the very next pick.
You'll also note I took three quarterbacks. That's rare for me, usually I take two (or one if I get a top-three QB). Taking Kirk Cousins and Will Levis with my last two picks made sense because they were among the highest-ranked players left on my board, plus I can always cut one of them after the first few games of the season.
But for all my dilemmas, I want to tell you that my favorite pick was a byproduct of strategic planning and really good luck.
Favorite pick
Projections powered by Sportsline
Anthony Richardson QB
IND Indianapolis • #5
Age: 22 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) | ||||
OVERALL RNK38th | QB RNK3rd | PROJ PTS421.9 | SOS5 | ADP3 |
2023 Stats | ||||
PAYDS4306 | RUYDS524 | TD44 | INT18 | FPTS/G26.5 |
I was surprised to see Richardson slide to late Round 6, but in this draft, every single quarterback fell because no one picking wanted to reach for one early. Before I locked in Richardson at 71st overall, I checked the roster of the team picking after me in Round 6 and then before me in Round 7 and sure enough he had taken Patrick Mahomes. I assumed there was almost no chance he would also take Richardson, so I instead took Jayden Reed at 71st overall and waited for Richardson to fall to me at 74th overall. I do not think you'll find Richardson this late in your draft, but I DEFINITELY think you will come up with moments like this where you can use your opponents' needs and roster against him and take players at a better value in the odd-numbered rounds.
Pick I might regret
Projections powered by Sportsline
Stefon Diggs WR
HOU Houston • #1
Age: 30 • Experience: 10 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) | ||||
OVERALL RNK67th | TE RNK6th | PROJ PTS196.4 | SOS2 | ADP57 |
2023 Stats | ||||
REC65 | TAR90 | REYDS1020 | TD6 | FPTS/G12.7 |
Based on my research, I don't think Diggs is a declining player. I do think he's in a crowded offense and will almost certainly not come close to the targets he saw when he was in Buffalo. And given how I built this team, he's my No. 2 receiver. Of course, I would have liked someone better, but had I taken Deebo Samuel where I took Derrick Henry I could have drafted James Conner or David Montgomery when I took Diggs. I don't think I would have liked that as much. So I'm OK with Diggs but hoping he outperforms expectations; he's ideal as a No. 3 WR.
Make or break player
Projections powered by Sportsline
Derrick Henry RB
BAL Baltimore • #22
Age: 30 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) | ||||
OVERALL RNK59th | RB RNK18th | PROJ PTS203.5 | SOS5 | ADP72 |
2023 Stats | ||||
RUYDS451 | REC15 | REYDS98 | TD1 | FPTS/G4.4 |
If he's his usual cyborg-like self he'll help me cruise to the Fantasy playoffs. If Father Time catches up with him, or if the Ravens opt to considerably limit him, then I'll wish that I did indeed draft Samuel instead of him in Round 3. I do love the fit in Baltimore and the Ravens might overreact to last year's playoff loss when they barely ran the ball by giving Henry a ton of touches. If he stays upright, the stats should be insane.
