ESPN NFL Experts
Oct 23, 2019, 06:55 AM ET
Our panel of NFL experts predicts Week 8's biggest upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers. Plus, they make a few predictions for the season.
Dive into our analysts' takes on who has been dominant, whom they're worried about and more.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 8?
Mina Kimes, NFL writer: Panthers (+5.5) over 49ers. Jimmy Garoppolo has just one more touchdown than he does interceptions this season; the ferocious Carolina defense has been forcing picks at the third-highest rate in the NFL. This should be a slugfest, but a couple of ill-timed throws could hand it to the Panthers.
Jason Reid, The Undefeated, senior writer: Cardinals (+10) over Saints. I know, I know. Teddy Bridgewater has been strong (seven touchdown passes and only one interception in his past three starts) in place of Drew Brees, the Saints have won five straight and they're undefeated at home (3-0). But the Cardinals have won three in a row. And just call it a feeling, but Kyler Murray could have a big day.
Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: Jets (+5.5) over Jaguars. The Jets have a good defense, and I think Sam Darnold can have a comeback game against a defense that's nowhere near as good as the Patriots' right now. Le'Veon Bell should be able to put up good numbers against a Jaguars run defense that ranks 27th in DVOA.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Chargers (+4) over Bears. Not all 2-5 records are the same. The Chargers' point differential is minus-1 and all five of their losses have been by one score. The Bears' offense looked completely broken at home in Week 7. Even if Chicago tightens up in some areas, it is ripe for another home loss.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Panthers (+5.5) over 49ers. This feels like a pick I might regret immensely, but it's a bold one. The Panthers -- winners of four straight and with an extra week to prepare -- will show up to San Francisco with a pass rush talented enough to torment the 49ers' passing game and pull the upset.
Are you buying or selling the San Francisco 49ers as the NFC's best team?
Kimes: Selling. I think they're the second-best team, behind New Orleans. The defense is for real, but the offense is still a bit inconsistent. When the Saints get Drew Brees back I think that puts them over the top, assuming he's healthy.
Reid: Buying. I have no interest in even debating the stats. Just focus on this: Have y'all seen that defensive line? Of course, I get that the Saints have better offensive balance, and we'll undoubtedly revisit this question once Brees returns, but I'm living in the moment.
Schatz: Buying for now, but selling when Brees returns. Football Outsiders' ratings have the 49ers second and the Saints eighth right now. But my estimate is that the 49ers and Saints will be roughly equivalent with Brees back, and I'd rather have a balanced team (the Saints are top 10 in all three phases of the game) over the defense-focused 49ers.
Seifert: Selling. The Saints are the best team in the NFC and arguably the NFL. Winning all five of backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater's starts is the biggest testament to their depth and balance. The 49ers have a better points differential -- 92 points to the Saints' 17 -- but the Saints' schedule has been much more difficult. Their strength of victory is .513, while the 49ers' is .282.
Yates: Selling. I believe they are the second-best team in the NFC behind the Saints, who I believe are the most balanced and complete team in the conference. But San Francisco is totally for real (as I stated earlier, I might sincerely regret my decision to pick the Panthers over the 49ers).
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Kimes: Browns WR Jarvis Landry. I'm fading pretty much anyone against the Patriots' secondary. That unit is absurdly good.
Reid: Redskins QB Case Keenum. It's painful to watch Keenum play for Washington. Also, he has flopped regularly recently, so why should this week be any different?
Schatz: Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr. Mr. Beckham, I would like you to meet Mr. Stephon Gilmore. Mr. Gilmore, Mr. Beckham. Have a fun afternoon, guys.
Seifert: Redskins RB Adrian Peterson. Opponents are averaging 3.82 yards per carry against the Vikings, ninth-lowest in the NFL. And they have every reason to load up against the run, given the state of the Redskins' passing game.
Yates: Panthers WR DJ Moore. Some of the top wide receivers to face off against the 49ers this season include Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Odell Beckham Jr., Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Terry McLaurin. Their combined output? Just 15 catches, 154 yards and one touchdown. This 49ers defense is nasty!
Devise a realistic trade to help a team before the Oct. 29 deadline.
Kimes: Green Bay trades a first-round pick to Cincinnati for wide receiver A.J. Green and a 2020 third-round pick. After what Aaron Rodgers did last weekend, it might not seem like Green Bay even needs another pass-catcher, but imagine how deadly this offense could be with Green in the mix. The Packers would have to clear a little cap space, but given this team's ceiling right now, I think it'd be worth it. Plus, it would be incredibly fun.
Reid: The Chargers trade running back Melvin Gordon to the Bills for a late-round pick. L.A. is 2-5, and Gordon is averaging 2.3 yards per carry in the three games since he came back from his holdout. Why not try to get something for him before he's a free agent in March? The Bills want to beat teams by running the ball, and Gordon could help down the stretch.
Schatz: The Falcons trade tight end Austin Hooper and a 2020 sixth-round pick to the Seahawks for a 2020 third-round pick. Hooper, in the final year of his rookie contract, is second in the league in receiving value based on Football Outsiders' DYAR metric. Seattle needs a dependable tight end now that Will Dissly is out for the season. The Falcons are going nowhere, and with their terrible cap situation they won't be able to sign Hooper to any kind of long-term deal.
Seifert: The Redskins trade left tackle Trent Williams to the Browns for their 2020 first-round pick and a 2021 third-rounder. The Browns have been unsettled at left tackle for years, and while quarterback Baker Mayfield should shoulder some of the blame for a 30.5% pressure rate, there is little doubt that Williams would be a major upgrade. From the Redskins' perspective, it's clear that Williams doesn't want to play for them. A first-round pick in a package for a 31-year-old offensive lineman is more than fair value.
Yates: The Bengals trade tight end Tyler Eifert to the Saints for a 2021 sixth-round pick. The Saints are short of 2020 draft capital, so a move would be tied to a pick even further in the future. Eifert would help provide insurance at a position where New Orleans could use the depth, while Cincinnati gets a pick back for a soon-to-be free agent.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 8.
Kimes: Rams TE Gerald Everett. He isn't completely established as a No. 1, but playing the hapless Bengals, who are allowing the highest points to tight ends on average, should cement his role.
Reid: Chiefs QB Matt Moore. With Patrick Mahomes sidelined, coach Andy Reid will figure out a way to produce points with Moore. It's what Reid does.
Schatz: Seahawks WR DK Metcalf. At this point, just empty your bench against the Falcons' pass defense. Start everyone.
Seifert: Rams RB Darrell Henderson Jr. The Bengals have the worst rushing defense in the NFL, and given the health of Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown, there are lots of reasons to think Henderson will get more than his fair share of opportunities.
Yates: Vikings QB Kirk Cousins. Over the past three games, Cousins has thrown 10 total touchdowns and at least 300 yards in every game. On Thursday he faces a generous Washington defense that has struggled for answers throughout the season. Cousins' red-hot streak will continue.
