ESPN NFL Experts
Oct 28, 2020, 06:45 AM ET
Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season sees a pair of huge divisional matchups, one in the AFC North and one in the NFC West.
The visiting Pittsburgh Steelers (6-0) will put the league's only unblemished record on the line against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, and later the visiting San Francisco 49ers will try to close the gap on the Seattle Seahawks.
Meanwhile, in another divisional game, the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills will play host to the reeling New England Patriots, who are two games under .500 for the first time since 2001.
We asked our experts for their thoughts on the Patriots' fortunes, as well as biggest potential upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 8?
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Raiders (+2.5) over Browns. With Derek Carr pushing the ball down the field in recent weeks, coach Jon Gruden can scheme up vertical throws versus a Browns defense that lacks urgency and ball production in the back end.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Raiders (+2.5) over Browns. The Raiders will see the film of Baker Mayfield's season, see that he has really struggled when pressured and adjust accordingly. When under duress this season, Mayfield ranks No. 27 in NFL QBR (50.5). When not under duress, he ranks No. 8 (79.2).
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Lions (+3) over Colts. Detroit came through for me last week (thanks Todd Gurley II!), so I'll roll with them again. Kenny Golladay is catching absolutely everything. His 71% catch rate is almost 19% above expectation given the targets he has received, per NFL Next Gen Stats, so I'm banking on him to win a tough matchup against a resurgent Xavier Rhodes.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: 49ers (+3) over Seahawks. Coach Kyle Shanahan remains a treasure of an offensive mind, and despite a host of injuries and Jimmy Garoppolo's at-times unsteady production down the field, the team can scheme up ways for players to put together chunk plays consistently. I expect this game to be close, perhaps with some of the typical 49ers-Seahawks drama, but ultimately believe San Francisco can pull off the upset in Seattle.
Devise a realistic trade to help a team before the Nov. 3 deadline.
Bowen: Falcons center Alex Mack to the Bears for a 2021 fifth-rounder and 2022 sixth-rounder. Adding Mack would allow the Bears to bump center Cody Whitehair to guard, boosting the interior of the offensive line that has struggled to gain traction this season in the running game.
Seifert: Vikings offensive tackle Riley Reiff to the Eagles for a fifth-round pick. Reiff is a pending free agent, and the Vikings drafted his likely successor (Ezra Cleveland) last spring. The Eagles could use help pretty much anywhere along the offensive line, and Reiff could play guard if needed.
Walder: Texans defensive end J.J. Watt and a sixth-round pick to the Packers for a second-round pick. Outside of emotional attachment, Watt is a prime trade candidate for a Houston team that needs rebuilding assets. In Green Bay, he'd provide an instant boost for a unit that has ranked surprisingly poorly (26th) in pass rush win rate, and he would make a dangerous combination with the Smiths (Za'Darius and Preston).
Yates: Bengals defensive end Carlos Dunlap to the Raiders for a 2022 sixth-round pick. Dunlap has made it abundantly clear following his demotion that he wants out of Cincinnati yesterday. A reunion with Paul Guenther -- a longtime Cincinnati assistant -- would be logical for a Raiders team desperate for pass-rush answers. The price is a modest one, which is in part reflective of the recent Markus Golden deal to the Giants for a 2021 sixth-round pick: That's a reasonable price for a player who might be viewed as a rental, as Dunlap is due up to $11.25 million in 2021, non-guaranteed. (Update: Dunlap was traded to the Seahawks on Wednesday afternoon.)
Should the Dallas Cowboys trade for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to try to win the NFC East?
Bowen: No. Fitzpatrick could bring back a vertical element to the Cowboys' passing game that is missing with Andy Dalton. However, given the current state of this football team, adding a 37-year-old quarterback isn't a quick fix to the multiple issues I see in Dallas.
Seifert: Bahahaha. (That's a no.) I can see the argument: You can get him for a low draft pick and the NFC East is eminently winnable. But the Cowboys were losing games with better quarterbacks than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Given their coaching and personnel issues, they're a losing team with or without him.
Walder: I'm trying to find a way to say yes ... but the answer is no. It's tempting to go after Fitzpatrick after a year and a half of pretty strong play from him (behind a bad offensive line, too!). But this Cowboys roster is not a Ryan Fitzpatrick away from the playoffs. Not even in the NFC East.
Yates: No. While Fitz represents an upgrade, the Cowboys need to be honest with themselves: They're not winning big this year. Rather than taking on close to $4 million in additional money this year for Fitz -- which it would then be unable to roll over into 2021 -- the team should stay the course. It's obvious the Cowboys need to make a long-term commitment to Dak Prescott this offseason, and every cent of cap space will make that more viable while allowing them to address other roster issues. Play the long game.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 8.
Bowen: Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Browns. If you need a WR3/4 in deeper, non-PPR leagues, I would give Peoples-Jones a look here versus the Raiders' defense. With Odell Beckham Jr. down for the season, Peoples-Jones will get snaps, and he has the traits to create explosive plays. Last week, the rookie out of Michigan caught 3 of 3 targets for 56 yards and a score, in a game in which QB Baker Mayfield played his best football of the past two years. He was dialed in.
Seifert: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Panthers. The Falcons have allowed an NFL-high 19 touchdown passes this season. Bridgewater has thrown only eight in seven games, good for No. 24 in the league, but he'll get his chances to elevate that rate in Week 8.
Walder: JaMycal Hasty, RB, 49ers. Kyle Shanahan could pluck a fourth-string running back off of UC Santa Cruz (Banana Slugs!) and he'd be worth considering in fantasy if he were going to get touches. Hasty, who recorded nine rushes and made one reception last week, looks like he will after Jeff Wilson Jr.'s injury last week.
Yates: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. The first-round pick has looked the part early in his career with open-field explosiveness that is going to be a problem for any defense. With Deebo Samuel (hamstring) banged up, I'll be interested to see if Shanahan turns to Aiyuk to run some of those concepts that would set him up for ample run-after-catch opportunities.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Bowen: Myles Gaskin, RB, Dolphins. The Dolphins RB has seen pretty consistent volume, posting at least 16 carries in three of his past four games. And I do believe the Dolphins will be more zone-run-heavy with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. However, against a Rams defense line that can control the interior of the front, it will be tough for Gaskin to find open daylight on a consistent basis.
Seifert: James Conner, RB, Steelers. Connor has been getting between 18 and 25 touches per game, but his matchup with the Ravens doesn't bode well for fantasy production. The Ravens have the NFL's stingiest defense, allowing 17.3 points per game.
Walder: J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens. He'll be an enticing start with Mark Ingram II banged up, but oof, it's a tough matchup: The Steelers have the best run stop win rate in the league. Plus, Gus Edwards figures to get his fair share of work, too.
Yates: Drew Brees, QB, Saints. It's at least possible that Brees will once again be without receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders in Week 8, though such was not enough to slow him down in Week 7. That being said, the Bears' defense is no joke and a far more daunting test than the Panthers' D. He's outside my top 12 quarterback plays this week.
On a scale of 1 to 10, how panicked should Patriots fans be about their 2-4 start and Cam Newton's play the past two weeks?
Bowen: 7. The Patriots' offense lacks juice and explosive-play ability. Add in the inconsistent ball location/mechanics here with Newton, plus a defense that is showing its inexperience in key spots. Right now, the Patriots can be schemed up by opposing teams -- on both sides of the ball.
Seifert: 6. The Patriots have dug themselves a hole, in the process demonstrating some deficiencies that might well end up keeping them out of the playoffs. But they can take some comfort in knowing that under coach Bill Belichick, they have been a better team after Week 7 (.771 winning percentage) than before it (.733). In an uncertain AFC East, it's not time to panic (fully) quite yet.
Walder: 8. The operation doesn't work if Newton isn't playing well -- and last week he posted a 3.5 QBR. Game situation has played a role, but the Patriots have gone away from designed runs with Newton, and those first two weeks -- when he ran the most -- were his best. Now New England is staring at a 19% chance to reach the playoffs, per FPI.
Yates: 8. While Newton has been bad, it's not like much else is going right for the Patriots right now. The defense has dropped off substantially since last season, lacking a pass rush and a middle-of-the-field linebacker who can be dynamic as a coverage player -- a staple in today's NFL with so many pass-catching backs and tight ends. It's ugly right now.
