Tuley: Week 8 NFL ATS picks (2024)

LAS VEGAS -- We're seven weeks into the NFL's 17-game regular-season schedule.

My against-the-spread record in this weekly column stands at 24-24-1 as I went 3-4 ATS last week. I'm certainly not proud of that as 50/50 loses money in this game, but I'm emboldened by the fact that it could be worse. The LVH SuperContest's top five most selected teams each week are a combined 8-26-1 ATS (23.5 percent) while the consensus on all games heading into Thursday night's Panthers-Buccaneers contest was 41-64-1 ATS (39 percent), so it's been a rough start of the season for a lot of bettors -- squares and sharps alike.

I'm also encouraged because this is usually the time of year when my "dog-or-pass" philosophy usually has its best results. Even last year, after I had cooled off from a 28-11 ATS (71.8 percent) start through Week 5, I went 19-13 ATS (59.4 percent) in the four weeks starting with Week 8, a win percentage I would certainly welcome now. This is usually due to the fact that we see a perceived wider disparity in the haves and have-nots of the league and start to see lines get inflated, giving the dogs a bigger window in which to cover.

This week is hopefully a great example, as there are 12 games remaining on the Sunday/Monday schedule and half of them have a point spread of a touchdown or more. However, I don't advise betting anything blindly, so I'll still try to be selective and isolate the most live underdogs and pass on the others. As we do every week in this space, we'll see what the public is thinking, what the wiseguys are thinking and then give my take on each game.

Programming note: I'm no longer eligible for ESPN.com's "Streak for the Cash" contest, but they've asked me to suggest some plays. This is different from picking games against the spread (especially because they mostly have you pick games straight up, and the games are closer to pick 'em), but it's all about win percentages/odds, so I'll tackle those at the end of the column. Good luck.

Last week: 3-4 ATS | Year to date: 24-24-1 (50 percent) ATS

Note: Consensus pick percentages as of late Thursday night.

Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: 49ers -16.5
Public consensus pick: 69 percent picked 49ers

Public perception: The first game in the betting rotation is the biggest spread of the week. It'll be interesting to see how much the public gets involved. Two weeks ago, oddsmakers opened the Broncos minus-28 against the Jaguars and the public -- despite making it the most talked-about spread so far this season -- mostly stayed away as they weren't willing to back the Jaguars at any price but also weren't willing to lay that many points with the Broncos. The ESPN Pick Center has the public supporting the 49ers at nearly 70 percent, but we'll see if that turns into actual wagers.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps bet the favored 49ers from the opening line of minus-15.5 at the LVH and minus-14.5 offshore all the way up to 17, and then there was buyback on the Jaguars as the line has settled at 16.5. The wiseguys probably won't get involved unless it gets to 17 again.

Tuley's Take: Double-digit underdogs are 8-5 ATS (61.5 percent) so far this season, and of the four such spreads this week (with the Packers-Vikings being a possible fifth), this is the one I like best. My power ratings have this closer to a 13-point spread on a neutral field, which this is (Wembley Stadium, London). The Jaguars had started playing better with the return of wide receiver Justin Blackmon from suspension, but then put up a clunker last week in a 24-6 loss to the Chargers. Hopefully we will see the same effort they gave in covering against the Broncos.

The 49ers have covered four straight games, but they looked like they took the foot off the gas last week after getting up big on the Titans and I'm hoping they do the same this week and will be content with a comfortable two-score win (10-14 points) as they begin their extended vacation.

The pick: Jaguars.

Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -7.5
Public consensus pick: 67 percent picked Chiefs

Public perception: The Kansas City bandwagon is full considering it's the last undefeated team left in the NFL. This is true even with the Chiefs failing to cover a similar number last week against the Texans (though Derrick Johnson's fumble recovery and roll into the end zone had a lot of people going nuts in the sports books here). The public never seems to be able to back the Browns.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps would normally love to take the Browns in a spot like this, but who knew their top quarterback would be Brian Hoyer as they were 3-0 with him starting and now 0-4 without him. Wiseguys are probably more inclined to just use the Chiefs in teasers.

Tuley's Take: It worked fading the Chiefs last week and I feel I'm getting enough points here to do it again. The Browns go to Jason Campbell, who I'm not thrilled with having to rely on, but he's serviceable. Besides, I'm mostly looking at the matchup with the Browns defense, which is allowing just 14.3 yards per game more than the Chiefs, to keep this close.

The pick: Browns.

Matchup: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -6.5
Public consensus pick: 69 percent picked Patriots

Public perception: The Patriots are just 4-3 ATS, but the public still backs them anyway. The offense looked more in sync with Rob Gronkowski back last week, though they lost to the Jets.

Wiseguys' view: The Dolphins started 3-0 SU and ATS but have dropped their past three games and have lost their luster with the sharps (and whatever public following they had picked up). The Patriots will be another popular teaser play for both sharps and squares.

Tuley's Take: I'm not ready to totally drop the Dolphins as a live underdog, but would much prefer if we were getting a full touchdown this week. I'm kind of hoping they get blown out this week, and I can get them as a plus-3 home dog versus the Bengals next Thursday night.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Patriots, though this would flip to Dolphins if your pool uses a line of 7.5).

Matchup: Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -11
Public consensus pick: 77 percent picked Saints

Public perception: Saints at home. That's about all you need to know that the public is willing to lay whatever points the oddsmakers require, as they're 3-0 SU and ATS in the Superdome again.

Wiseguys' view: This line was Saints minus-13.5 in the advance line at the LVH last week and then adjusted to 12.5 after Buffalo's upset at Miami last Sunday (the Saints were on a bye in the interim), so it's showing some respect for what Thad Lewis has been able to do with the Bills. With Lewis starting, Buffalo is 2-0 ATS, including covering the six-point spread in a 27-24 OT loss to the Bengals in his Week 6 debut.

Tuley's Take: I've certainly upgraded the Bills as well, but I learned long ago to fade the Saints only at home (in this Sean Payton/Drew Brees era) when I feel the opposing team can either contain their offense or keep up with them. I think the Bills offense will have some success, even against the Saints' improved defense, but not enough to think they'll keep this close enough. This is one double-digit 'dog where I'll pass.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Bills).

Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -3
Public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Cowboys

Public perception: This is just one of two games this week where the public is siding with the underdog (Atlanta at Arizona is the other). The Cowboys are starting to become "America's Team" again as they're gaining in popularity with the betting public as they're a league-best 6-1 ATS.

Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys like the Cowboys too, as they snapped up all the plus-3.5s out there.

Tuley's Take: I'm not thrilled that the public is with me on the Cowboys, as I've long said "the only worse bet than an overinflated favorite is a public underdog," but I feel the Cowboys are dropping down in class here. The Cowboys' three SU losses are to the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos (and they covered against the undefeated Chiefs and the Broncos), so they're 4-0 SU and ATS when not facing the AFC West. DeMarco Murray has been upgraded to probable, but Dallas will still mostly attack through the air in what should be a shootout.

The pick: Cowboys.

Matchup: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -5.5
Public consensus pick: N/A

Public perception: Other bet-tracking sites have the action pretty split on this game of NFC East also-rans, with a slight lean to the Giants plus the points. The Giants are coming off their first win of the season Monday night over the Vikings and saying all the right things about feeling they can get back in the divisional race with the Cowboys in the lead at just 4-3.

Wiseguys' view: While the public still is enamored with Chip Kelly's fast-break offense, the sharps have been quicker to fade it. Nick Foles (and Matt Barkley) managed just three points last week against the Cowboys. Previously, a lot of people didn't see a difference in the Eagles' power rating with Foles or Michael Vick, who is being rushed back into action with Foles' concussion, but now it's assumed they're better with Vick (when healthy).

Tuley's Take: I'm trying not to overreact to the Giants' first win, but with just as much chaos on the Philly side, I feel this number is just a little too high and offers value on the Giants. I don't think the Giants will shut down the Eagles as well as the Cowboys did, but they should do enough for the offense to score enough points against the Eagles' sieve-like defense.

The pick: Giants.

Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders

Spread: Steelers -2.5
Public consensus pick: 62 percent picked Steelers

Public perception: During the Steelers' 0-4 start, it was looking like the public was abandoning this once "public team." But now it seems the public's faith has been restored with back-to-back wins over the Jets and Ravens (and both cases they opened as underdogs and were bet to favorites) and they're backing them here as a short road favorite.

Wiseguys' view: There are sharps on both sides of this game. The Steelers also have come through for their wiseguy support the past two weeks, but other sharps have quickly grabbed the Raiders plus-3 when it has become available. This will be one of the rare underdogs that will be big teaser plays this week (the Falcons being the other).

Tuley's Take: This is another close call as the Raiders, coming off the bye, are tempting as a short home underdog (they did knock off the Chargers 27-17 in that Sunday late-night game three weeks ago), but with the Steelers' resurgence I would need at least the field goal, so I just think there are stronger underdog plays this week.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Steelers, flipping to the Raiders at plus-3 or plus-3.5).

Matchup: New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -6.5
Public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Bengals

Public perception: The Jets are coming off their upset of the Patriots, but the Bengals also knocked off the Pats three weeks ago and are 3-0 SU and ATS at home, so the public is giving slight support to the Bengals and will also be using them in teasers (a lot of these games in this similar point range this week).

Wiseguys' view: The sharps have gobbled up the Jets plus-7 as the line has been wavering back and forth between 6.5 and 7. Geno Smith has earned more and more respect to go with the stout defense.

Tuley's Take: I really like this Bengals team, so it's hard for me to fade them. However, I would do it if getting the plus-7, though it just "buys insurance" against it landed on the key number and getting a push, but I passed on using it in the LVH SuperContest as the line also is 6.5 there, so I'll officially pass here, too.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Jets, and would be closer to an official play at plus-7).

Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals -2.5
Public consensus pick: 72 percent picked Falcons

Public perception: Here's that other game with the public jumping all over the underdog. The Falcons ended a three-game winning streak last week against the Buccaneers (which isn't much to brag about), but the Cardinals also have failed to cover two in a row, so the public has no problem fading them.

Wiseguys' view: There has been some wiseguy support for the Cardinals earlier this week, which helped this line move more toward a field goal than steaming toward pick 'em. The sharps know that even though the Cardinals have cooled off, their three losses this year are to the Saints, 49ers and Seahawks, certainly nothing to be ashamed of. Plenty of other sharps will be teasing the Falcons over a touchdown.

Tuley's Take: I'm again a little concerned with the public agreeing with me so strongly on this pick, but I've been on the Falcons since seeing the opener on this game. At some point you just have to go with your convictions. Roddy White is questionable to return, but Harry Douglas stepped up big-time last week, and the Falcons might also get back Steven Jackson. The Falcons should have enough to pull out the road upset.

The pick: Falcons.

Matchup: Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -12
Public consensus pick: 57 percent picked Broncos

Public perception: The Redskins outlasted the Bears 45-41 to put a temporary stop to the jokes about this Washington shutdown, but it hasn't been enough to get the public off the Broncos, even though they've failed to cover four of their past five games if you grade them against the closing 16.5-point spread versus the Raiders in Week 3. Even if you don't include that, they've dropped three of their past four ATS.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps are mostly in the "dog-or-pass" mode anytime there's a double-digit line in the NFL.

Tuley's Take: I'm tempted to take the points here as well, especially as I've been willing to fade the Broncos several times this year with some success (though unfortunately I wasn't on the Colts last week), but I just can't do it with the Redskins. I have no faith that their defense can slow down Peyton Manning & Co., especially after the Bears continued to go right through them after Jay Cutler was replaced by Josh McCown.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Broncos).

Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Packers -9
Public consensus pick: 79 percent picked Packers

Public perception: The public is back on the Packers strong. They're always a public team, plus they came through for backers last week laying a big number against the Browns. The Vikings looked awful Monday night, so you know that type of performance (even with Josh Freeman out) isn't going to inspire people to step to the windows.

Wiseguys' view: The LVH advance line on this game was just 6.5 a week ago, so we see how much the Vikings were downgraded off that loss to the Giants.

Tuley's Take: I guess this is where I earn my contrarian stripes (and sure to inspire wrathful comments below from Packer backers). This isn't my strongest opinion of the week, and I nearly passed on this home underdog as well, but I'm taking the Vikings here.

Sure, they looked awful, but I think the switch back to Christian Ponder helps them as they'll probably rely more on Adrian Peterson as they did when having success last year. Besides, the Packers haven't been dominant with their injury problems and have alternated spread covers each week this year. Even when they cover (like against the Lions and Browns), they only did so after pulling away late. I hope that's the case here (without the last cover, of course).

The pick: Vikings.

Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams

Spread: Seahawks -11
Public consensus pick: 85 percent picked Seahawks

Public perception: With Sam Bradford done for the year and the Rams' GM having tried to bring Brett Favre out of retirement, it's no wonder the books can't get anyone to bet the Rams. The Seahawks, meanwhile, continue to get bet at any price.

Wiseguys' view: The advance line on this game was only Seahawks minus-5 before the Rams lost Bradford in the 30-15 loss to the Panthers. That's a huge adjustment, but the sharps haven't jumped on the underdog here. They're probably waiting to see if the public steams it even higher over the course of the weekend.

Tuley's Take: Yes, I take some ugly underdogs (and in the long run, home dogs of 8 or more points have been a very profitable play), but even I have my limits. I'm passing on Kellen Clemens and the Rams, but if I was forced to choose, I would have to take the points.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Rams, reluctantly).

Streak for the Cash

When playing this contest, it's doesn't make sense to pick a lot of underdogs, as you don't get any extra points for doing that. So my suggested games are usually favorites where I haven't been able to make a strong case for the underdog. Note: With so many big spreads this week, there are slim pickings for NFL games being used in "Streak for the Cash;" in fact, just three planned as of this writing.

Best bet: Steelers over Raiders: I'm reluctant to take a road favorite in contests like this, but it's the best option this week if you're looking to extend a streak. Of course, if you're on a long streak, you probably haven't needed my help up to now.

Confidence meter: 55.5 percent (which is right around where I think the money line will close with the vig removed)

Cowboys at Lions and Falcons at Cardinals: These are the only other options this week. Both are games where I'm picking the underdog (Cowboys and Falcons) because I believe they will pull the outright upset. If you're starting a new streak, this a time to consider taking a chance with the underdog, but I'd look for other options if you have a streak going.

Confidence meter: 53 percent (my confidence in taking them against the spread is the added points they're getting.)